First edition, so the window is wider than a fortnight. Since April the donor side of the terrain has been re-cut: aid fell by the most on record, the UK halved its Green Climate Fund cheque, Germany trimmed again — and in the same months three funds opened or re-opened their doors (GEF-9 live from July, GCF-3 launched, the Loss and Damage fund sitting on 176 proposals). For a consultant that is not less work. It is work that has moved address, and the twelve weeks from UNGA to the Loss and Damage board in December are where next year's pipeline gets shaped.
Windows — the next 30–90 days
- 20–27 Sep — Climate Week NYC; the UNGA81 general debate runs 22–28 Sep.
- 5–8 Oct — Pre-COP31, Nadi, Fiji.
- 12–18 Oct — IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings, Bangkok.
- 26–29 Oct — GCF Board B.46, Songdo.
- 9–20 Nov — COP31, Antalya. Both the Global Goal on Adaptation and the mitigation work programme arrive with no agreed text after Bonn.
- December — FRLD Board B.10, Manila: the first-ever funding approvals, deferred from July.
- Open now — GEF-9 (July 2026–June 2030) is programming.
What moved
- GCF approved USD 369.1m across 10 projects at B.45 (Dushanbe, 29 Jun–2 Jul) and formally launched GCF-3, covering 2028–2031 (GCF, 2 Jul 2026; B.45 decisions). → The replenishment argument starts now. Accredited entities will want visible pipeline before donors price the round — concept-note and readiness support is the near-term work.
- The UK told the GCF it will deliver £815m of its £1.62bn GCF-2 pledge (Carbon Brief, 26 May 2026). → Less GCF-2 money means tighter sequencing of approvals into 2027; country programming is where the remaining money lands first.
- GEF-9: USD 3.9bn pledged on 9 April; period July 2026–June 2030; 35% earmarked for LDCs and SIDS (GEF). → The first GEF-9 work programmes are the earliest new-money calls of the cycle. Agencies need PIF writers before they need evaluators.
- The Loss and Damage fund deferred its first approvals to December (B.9, Manila, 8–10 Jul): 176 requests from 119 countries asking USD 2.8bn, allocation lifted to about USD 342m (E Co., 27 Jul 2026; Dawn, 16 Jul 2026). → Roughly one proposal in eight gets funded. The billable work is helping a country's submission survive a second, harder review before December — and drafting the resubmission if it doesn't.
- EU Council agreed its partial mandate on Global Europe, €200bn for 2028–34 (16 Jun), with more weight on enlargement, the neighbourhood and migration (Council press release). → Sub-Saharan and climate lines will be fought over envelope by envelope; the 2027 programming documents decide what gets tendered in 2028.
- Germany's cabinet draft puts BMZ at €9.469bn for 2027, about €600m below 2026 — the fifth cut in a row (BMZ statement, 6 Jul 2026; evangelisch.de). → Fewer, tighter GIZ and KfW commissions; frameworks over one-offs.
- World Bank: no new short-term consultant (STC) appointments after July 2026, the category gone by January 2027 — roughly 22,000 people (MDB Jobs, 7 Jan 2026, reporting the Devex story). → Demand moves to extended-term contracts and corporate procurement. A sole trader needs a firm to sit under, or a vendor registration, before the STC desk closes.
- OECD: ODA fell 23.1% in real terms in 2025, to USD 174.3bn — the largest drop on record; the US alone down 57%, bilateral grants down 29% (OECD, 9 Apr 2026; Focus 2030). → This is the baseline, not a blip. Bilateral lines fell fastest; the funds fell least. Plan the pipeline around the funds, not the embassies.
The read
Where the money is still moving. Through the multilateral funds and the pooled routes. GCF, GEF-9, the FRLD and the EU's single instrument are open or about to programme, and the US has put USD 3.8bn into OCHA's country-based pooled funds as of May. If your clients are implementing agencies, NDAs, accredited entities or UN country teams, the work is there — proposal-shaped and deadline-shaped.
Where it isn't. Bilateral grant lines, the Bank's short-term desk, anything that lived on a donor's discretionary budget. The German, UK and US cuts are now written into next year's budgets; the contracts that depended on them are not coming back in the same form.
What to do this month. Pick the two windows that touch your clients — B.46 and the December FRLD board are the nearest real money — and write to the client now, before their autumn fills. If you hold World Bank STC contracts, ask your TTL which route they intend for your work after January; ask before Bangkok, not after. And if you have a GEF-9 or GCF-3 idea, the pre-concept conversation is worth more in September than in November.
Sherpa is in beta. If you would like a Terrain like this built on your own CV — which windows, which funds, which work, for you — send it via contextsherpa.com/start. It usually takes a day or two.
— Sherpa